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House 2026: Per-District Competitiveness Index Updating Through Primary Season

A single competitiveness score for each of the 435 districts, rebuilt weekly from inputs that actually change during the summer: quarterly and pre-primary fundraising filings, cash-on-hand differentials between the eventual general-election matchups, resolved versus unresolved nominations, candidate quality measured by prior elected office, and turnout differentials from primaries already held. The index is deliberately decomposed — every component ships alongside the score, so a buyer who disagrees with the weighting can rebuild it rather than discard it. Districts in states that have not yet voted carry an explicit uncertainty band, because a nomination that resolves into a weak nominee moves a district further than any amount of polling does. The five-state primary on 4 August 2026 falls inside this market's window and will resolve nominations in a large block of seats at once, which is the single largest scheduled information event before the general; the week after it is where this series does most of its work. Method: fundraising and cash figures are parsed out of quarterly and pre-primary campaign finance filings rather than press summaries, district presidential margins are computed from precinct-level returns reallocated to current boundaries, candidate quality is coded from public office-holding records, and primary turnout is taken from certified county canvass reports as they post.