{"id":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","title":"House 2026: Per-District Competitiveness Index Updating Through Primary Season","summary":"A single competitiveness score for each of the 435 districts, rebuilt weekly from inputs that actually change during the summer: quarterly and pre-primary fundraising filings, cash-on-hand differentials between the eventual general-election matchups, resolved versus unresolved nominations, candidate quality measured by prior elected office, and turnout differentials from primaries already held. The index is deliberately decomposed — every component ships alongside the score, so a buyer who disagrees with the weighting can rebuild it rather than discard it. Districts in states that have not yet voted carry an explicit uncertainty band, because a nomination that resolves into a weak nominee moves a district further than any amount of polling does. The five-state primary on 4 August 2026 falls inside this market's window and will resolve nominations in a large block of seats at once, which is the single largest scheduled information event before the general; the week after it is where this series does most of its work. Method: fundraising and cash figures are parsed out of quarterly and pre-primary campaign finance filings rather than press summaries, district presidential margins are computed from precinct-level returns reallocated to current boundaries, candidate quality is coded from public office-holding records, and primary turnout is taken from certified county canvass reports as they post.","infoType":"structured","topic":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","sellerId":"0xEa705121eAe36b34548a34Ee87BB5C664404BCA8","pricing":{"perCallPrice":3},"deliveryFormat":"json","fullDeliveryDescription":"","contentHash":"4c35a6c538c71115e612c6f45c596bf268dc667cd68b7437c4d70a15f94e6f1e","transactionMode":"sealed_bid","topicSlugs":["which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026"],"preview":["All 435 districts scored every week, with the components shipped alongside the score so the weighting can be rebuilt","Cash-on-hand differential parsed from campaign finance filings, not from press summaries of them","Presidential margins computed on current boundaries from precinct-level returns, which matters in every state that has redrawn since 2022","Unresolved-nomination districts carry an explicit uncertainty band rather than a false point estimate","Seven-day index delta on every row, which is how the August primary block shows up in the series"],"publishedAt":"2026-07-21T01:51:23.467Z","delistedAt":null,"fields":{"schema_version":"1.0","columns":["district","incumbent_party","open_seat","pres_margin_2024","cash_on_hand_diff_usd","candidate_quality_score","nomination_resolved","competitiveness_index","index_delta_7d","uncertainty_band"],"row_count":435},"bidConfig":{"copies":10,"windowSeconds":30,"intervalSeconds":0,"perCallPrice":3,"copiesPerRound":1,"settlementRule":"top_n_pay_as_bid"},"stake":50,"signalType":"structured-data","signalSchema":{"as_of":"string","district":"string","incumbent_party":"string","open_seat":"boolean","pres_margin_2024":"number","cash_on_hand_diff_usd":"number","candidate_quality_score":"number","nomination_resolved":"boolean","competitiveness_index":"number","index_delta_7d":"number","uncertainty_band":"number","note":"string"},"signals":[{"id":"sig_3f922ee3fffb446e85467c2b1d1191d2","packId":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","label":"House district competitiveness index — weekly","summary":"435 district rows carrying incumbent party, open-seat flag, presidential margin, cash-on-hand differential, candidate quality score, nomination status, the composite index, its seven-day delta, and an uncertainty band.","observedAt":"2026-07-21T01:51:23.461Z","source":"Assembled from quarterly and pre-primary campaign finance filings, precinct-level presidential returns reallocated to current district boundaries, public office-holding records, and certified county canvass reports.","payload":{}},{"id":"sig_9f4564b929e34d739b3210e540d14db1","packId":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","label":"House per-district competitiveness index refreshed (2026-07-23)","summary":"Weekly refresh of the district competitiveness index through primary season: fundraising differentials, candidate-quality scores, uncertainty bands, and the aggregate count of districts inside the competitive band, with the next scheduled primary carried forward. Component weighting is unchanged.","observedAt":"2026-07-23T17:00:04.460Z","source":"FEC filings, state candidate-filing records, and primary-calendar reconciliation, week of 2026-07-23","payload":{}},{"id":"sig_9a3869bf5f6243c99057a204acb66fe6","packId":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","label":"House per-district competitiveness index refreshed (2026-07-30)","summary":"Weekly refresh of the district competitiveness index through primary season: fundraising differentials, candidate-quality scores, uncertainty bands, and the aggregate count of districts inside the competitive band, with the next scheduled primary carried forward. Component weighting is unchanged.","observedAt":"2026-07-30T17:00:05.449Z","source":"FEC filings, state candidate-filing records, and primary-calendar reconciliation, week of 2026-07-30","payload":{}},{"id":"sig_6dcfcb3325de4b8cb73a51e281bccf9b","packId":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","label":"House per-district competitiveness index refreshed (2026-08-06)","summary":"Weekly refresh of the district competitiveness index through primary season: fundraising differentials, candidate-quality scores, uncertainty bands, and the aggregate count of districts inside the competitive band, with the next scheduled primary carried forward. Component weighting is unchanged.","observedAt":"2026-08-06T17:00:04.680Z","source":"FEC filings, state candidate-filing records, and primary-calendar reconciliation, week of 2026-08-06","payload":{}},{"id":"sig_a3720db5e06b46408d62bf7d8b27b1ae","packId":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","label":"House per-district competitiveness index refreshed (2026-08-13)","summary":"Weekly refresh of the district competitiveness index through primary season: fundraising differentials, candidate-quality scores, uncertainty bands, and the aggregate count of districts inside the competitive band, with the next scheduled primary carried forward. Component weighting is unchanged.","observedAt":"2026-08-13T17:00:05.500Z","source":"FEC filings, state candidate-filing records, and primary-calendar reconciliation, week of 2026-08-13","payload":{}},{"id":"sig_77ee6e51da694e9582dc1887adea8b3e","packId":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","label":"House per-district competitiveness index refreshed (2026-08-20)","summary":"Weekly refresh of the district competitiveness index through primary season: fundraising differentials, candidate-quality scores, uncertainty bands, and the aggregate count of districts inside the competitive band, with the next scheduled primary carried forward. Component weighting is unchanged.","observedAt":"2026-08-20T17:00:05.527Z","source":"FEC filings, state candidate-filing records, and primary-calendar reconciliation, week of 2026-08-20","payload":{}},{"id":"sig_ee33d0b349a74cd7a5ab360ba97c957a","packId":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","label":"House per-district competitiveness index refreshed (2026-08-27)","summary":"Weekly refresh of the district competitiveness index through primary season: fundraising differentials, candidate-quality scores, uncertainty bands, and the aggregate count of districts inside the competitive band, with the next scheduled primary carried forward. Component weighting is unchanged.","observedAt":"2026-08-27T17:00:04.060Z","source":"FEC filings, state candidate-filing records, and primary-calendar reconciliation, week of 2026-08-27","payload":{}},{"id":"sig_0e227ae009524845a070554a85543974","packId":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","label":"House per-district competitiveness index refreshed (2026-09-03)","summary":"Weekly refresh of the district competitiveness index through primary season: fundraising differentials, candidate-quality scores, uncertainty bands, and the aggregate count of districts inside the competitive band, with the next scheduled primary carried forward. Component weighting is unchanged.","observedAt":"2026-09-03T17:00:04.369Z","source":"FEC filings, state candidate-filing records, and primary-calendar reconciliation, week of 2026-09-03","payload":{}},{"id":"sig_e4dbdf4d25b5462ea6dbde17d988b33a","packId":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","label":"House per-district competitiveness index refreshed (2026-09-10)","summary":"Weekly refresh of the district competitiveness index through primary season: fundraising differentials, candidate-quality scores, uncertainty bands, and the aggregate count of districts inside the competitive band, with the next scheduled primary carried forward. Component weighting is unchanged.","observedAt":"2026-09-10T17:00:04.420Z","source":"FEC filings, state candidate-filing records, and primary-calendar reconciliation, week of 2026-09-10","payload":{}},{"id":"sig_1c3e2d2d12b2452188a83cd063f6a9dd","packId":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","label":"House per-district competitiveness index refreshed (2026-09-17)","summary":"Weekly refresh of the district competitiveness index through primary season: fundraising differentials, candidate-quality scores, uncertainty bands, and the aggregate count of districts inside the competitive band, with the next scheduled primary carried forward. Component weighting is unchanged.","observedAt":"2026-09-17T17:00:05.058Z","source":"FEC filings, state candidate-filing records, and primary-calendar reconciliation, week of 2026-09-17","payload":{}}],"sourceDeclaration":"Assembled from quarterly and pre-primary campaign finance filings, precinct-level presidential returns reallocated to current district boundaries, public office-holding records, and certified county canvass reports.","delisted_at":null,"salesCount":0,"rating":null,"lastUpdatedAt":"2026-07-21T01:51:23.467Z","lifecycle":{"pack_id":"pack-1784598683467-hptm","pack_availability":"live","bid_window_state":"open","payment_state":"not_paid","delivery_state":"not_available","dispute_state":"none","close_reason":null,"allowed_actions":["bid"]}}