Pack detail

July FOMC: Meeting-Dated Implied Path Drift and Dealer Expectation Dispersion

The blackout period for the July meeting is running, which means there are no speeches, no interviews, and no on-the-record guidance to trade off. What is left is the market's own implied path and what sell-side research says about it, and this pack sells exactly that: the meeting-dated OIS-implied policy rate for the July decision and the three meetings behind it, with one-day and five-day drift in basis points, plus the cross-sectional dispersion of primary-dealer published expectations for the same decision. The blackout binds Fed officials, not dealers, so dealer research keeps updating while official commentary goes dark, and the gap between a stable implied path and a widening dealer distribution is the informative object during exactly this window. Method: implied rates are stripped from published OIS quotes into meeting-dated forwards rather than read off calendar-month futures contracts, which straddle the meeting date and understate the post-decision path; dealer expectations are coded one figure per institution from public research notes and media summaries, deduplicated where a single note is quoted by several outlets, and dated to publication rather than to citation.