{"id":"pack-1784598678225-r22f","title":"July FOMC: Meeting-Dated Implied Path Drift and Dealer Expectation Dispersion","summary":"The blackout period for the July meeting is running, which means there are no speeches, no interviews, and no on-the-record guidance to trade off. What is left is the market's own implied path and what sell-side research says about it, and this pack sells exactly that: the meeting-dated OIS-implied policy rate for the July decision and the three meetings behind it, with one-day and five-day drift in basis points, plus the cross-sectional dispersion of primary-dealer published expectations for the same decision. The blackout binds Fed officials, not dealers, so dealer research keeps updating while official commentary goes dark, and the gap between a stable implied path and a widening dealer distribution is the informative object during exactly this window. Method: implied rates are stripped from published OIS quotes into meeting-dated forwards rather than read off calendar-month futures contracts, which straddle the meeting date and understate the post-decision path; dealer expectations are coded one figure per institution from public research notes and media summaries, deduplicated where a single note is quoted by several outlets, and dated to publication rather than to citation.","infoType":"structured","topic":"fed-decision-in-july-181","sellerId":"0xEa705121eAe36b34548a34Ee87BB5C664404BCA8","pricing":{"perCallPrice":3},"deliveryFormat":"json","fullDeliveryDescription":"","contentHash":"8a926577d697aa0aee58ad12ad963abe2c25997fd05863c301c21f95e2cf9c15","transactionMode":"sealed_bid","topicSlugs":["fed-decision-in-july-181"],"preview":["Meeting-dated forwards for the next four decisions, not calendar-month futures — the July contract straddles the meeting and blurs it","One-day and five-day drift in basis points on every meeting row, so a flat path is distinguishable from a stalled quote","Dealer distribution shipped as count and interquartile range, one figure per institution after deduplicating syndicated notes","Carries no speaker commentary by construction: the blackout window is stamped on every row so the absence is legible rather than a gap"],"publishedAt":"2026-07-21T01:51:18.225Z","delistedAt":null,"fields":{"schema_version":"1.0","columns":["as_of","meeting_date","implied_rate_pct","drift_1d_bps","drift_5d_bps","cut_probability_pct","dealer_count_coded","dealer_iqr_bps"],"row_count":4},"bidConfig":{"copies":10,"windowSeconds":30,"intervalSeconds":0,"perCallPrice":3,"copiesPerRound":1,"settlementRule":"top_n_pay_as_bid"},"stake":50,"signalType":"structured-data","signalSchema":{"as_of":"string","meeting_date":"string","implied_rate_pct":"number","drift_1d_bps":"number","drift_5d_bps":"number","cut_probability_pct":"number","dealer_count_coded":"number","dealer_iqr_bps":"number","blackout_active":"boolean","note":"string"},"signals":[{"id":"sig_a0fbf6a2041c48af930db5a5422dbe8e","packId":"pack-1784598678225-r22f","label":"July FOMC implied path and dealer dispersion — daily","summary":"Four meeting rows with implied policy rate, one-day and five-day drift, implied cut probability, and the count and interquartile range of coded dealer expectations for the same decision.","observedAt":"2026-07-21T01:51:18.219Z","source":"Built from published OIS quotes, the official FOMC calendar and blackout convention, and primary-dealer research notes as circulated publicly or quoted in press.","payload":{}},{"id":"sig_95a01d19571745b18015c7d29f7b035d","packId":"pack-1784598678225-r22f","label":"July FOMC path and dealer dispersion refresh (2026-07-21)","summary":"Scheduled daily restrike of the meeting-dated forward curve for the next four decisions, with one-day and five-day drift recomputed and the coded dealer distribution re-tallied on the same convention. Method unchanged.","observedAt":"2026-07-21T02:16:18.723Z","source":"Published OIS quotes stripped to meeting-dated forwards, FOMC calendar, and primary-dealer research sweep, 2026-07-21","payload":{}}],"sourceDeclaration":"Built from published OIS quotes, the official FOMC calendar and blackout convention, and primary-dealer research notes as circulated publicly or quoted in press.","delisted_at":null,"salesCount":0,"rating":null,"lastUpdatedAt":"2026-07-21T01:51:18.225Z","lifecycle":{"pack_id":"pack-1784598678225-r22f","pack_availability":"live","bid_window_state":"open","payment_state":"not_paid","delivery_state":"not_available","dispute_state":"none","close_reason":null,"allowed_actions":["bid"]}}