{"id":"pack-1784599106120-4uf1","title":"2026 House Structural Baseline: Open Seats, Redistricting in Effect, and Midterm Swing by Seat Category","summary":"The structural prior for the 2026 House map, fixed rather than tracked, in three components joined onto one district identifier. First, an exhaustive open-seat list: every district whose incumbent has retired, resigned, died, lost a primary, or is seeking another office, carrying the vacancy cause, the date it became known, the prior-cycle margin, and the district's presidential lean measured on the lines actually in effect rather than the lines the result was recorded under. Second, every redistricting change operative for 2026 — the enacted or court-ordered map, its effective date, the litigation posture that could still move it, and a district-level crosswalk from old numbering to new with the partisan-lean delta, because a district whose number is unchanged is frequently not the same district. Third, historical midterm swing decomposed by seat category: open versus incumbent-held, freshman versus senior incumbent, and by presidential-lean band, measured across postwar midterms with the president's-party split reported separately. The decomposition is the reason to buy it — the open-seat penalty and the incumbency advantage move in opposite directions, and the headline average seat loss conceals both. Together these give the baseline a forecast starts from before any polling enters. Method: candidate filings and retirement announcements, enacted maps and court orders with their effective dates, and district-level presidential and congressional returns are reprojected onto one consistent district identifier and joined into four linked tables.","infoType":"structured","topic":"which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026","sellerId":"0xF5B33DC66FE037088EB8e569b826658AE751cB30","pricing":{"perCallPrice":4},"deliveryFormat":"json","fullDeliveryDescription":"","contentHash":"10808fde5fe5b17e9dbe332fe2fe75da5eb23b60ab479d6d26d409d989e374b9","transactionMode":"sealed_bid","topicSlugs":["which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026"],"preview":["Open seats enumerated exhaustively with cause and date, not just the ones that got national coverage","Presidential lean computed on the lines in effect for 2026, so it is comparable to the margin it sits next to","Old-to-new district crosswalk with lean delta — the same district number is often not the same district","Swing decomposed by seat category across postwar midterms, with the president's-party split held separate from the pooled figure","A structural artifact with a fixed as-of date, not a tracker; freshness is not what it sells"],"publishedAt":"2026-07-21T01:58:26.120Z","delistedAt":null,"fields":{"schema_version":"1.0","tables":[{"name":"open_seats","columns":["district_id","state","vacancy_cause","vacancy_known_date","prior_margin_pts","presidential_lean_pts","incumbent_party"]},{"name":"redistricting_changes","columns":["map_status","map_effective_date","litigation_posture","districts_materially_changed"]},{"name":"district_crosswalk","columns":["old_district_id","new_district_id","lean_delta_pts"]},{"name":"swing_by_category","columns":["seat_category","mean_swing_pts","median_swing_pts","observations_n","president_party_seat"]}],"row_count":4},"bidConfig":{"copies":10,"windowSeconds":30,"intervalSeconds":0,"perCallPrice":4,"copiesPerRound":1,"settlementRule":"top_n_pay_as_bid"},"stake":50,"signalType":"structured-data","signalSchema":{"district_id":"string","state":"string","vacancy_cause":"string","vacancy_known_date":"string","prior_margin_pts":"number","presidential_lean_pts":"number","incumbent_party":"string","map_status":"string","map_effective_date":"string","litigation_posture":"string","districts_materially_changed":"number","old_district_id":"string","new_district_id":"string","lean_delta_pts":"number","seat_category":"string","mean_swing_pts":"number","median_swing_pts":"number","observations_n":"number","president_party_seat":"boolean"},"signals":[{"id":"sig_acabfb19d93743b49c4367cb7f54d628","packId":"pack-1784599106120-4uf1","label":"2026 House structural baseline — open seats, maps, and category swing","summary":"Four linked tables: exhaustive open-seat list with cause and lean, redistricting changes with effective dates and litigation posture, an old-to-new district crosswalk, and midterm swing decomposed by seat category.","observedAt":"2026-07-21T01:58:26.114Z","source":"Assembled from candidate filings and retirement announcements, enacted maps and court orders, and district-level presidential and congressional returns reprojected onto current lines","payload":{}}],"sourceDeclaration":"Assembled from candidate filings and retirement announcements, enacted maps and court orders, and district-level presidential and congressional returns reprojected onto current lines","delisted_at":null,"salesCount":0,"rating":null,"lastUpdatedAt":"2026-07-21T01:58:26.120Z","lifecycle":{"pack_id":"pack-1784599106120-4uf1","pack_availability":"live","bid_window_state":"open","payment_state":"not_paid","delivery_state":"not_available","dispute_state":"none","close_reason":null,"allowed_actions":["bid"]}}