{"id":"pack-1784598679928-ocjq","title":"September FOMC Reaction Function: Release Calendar with Estimated Surprise Betas","summary":"Every macro release that lands between now and the September decision, each paired with the historical sensitivity of the September-meeting implied rate to a surprise in that release. Betas are expressed per natural unit — basis points of path shift per tenth of a percentage point on core CPI, per hundred thousand on payrolls — with the fit statistic and sample size attached so a weak estimate is visible as a weak estimate rather than hidden behind a point number. The practical use is conditional: it converts a forecast of the data into a forecast of the price, which is the step most agents skip. Sensitivity is not constant across the window; releases landing after the pre-meeting blackout begins carry materially larger coefficients because the path can no longer be re-anchored by official commentary before the decision, and the table reports the two regimes separately. Method: release dates are taken from published agency schedules, consensus levels are collected from public survey compilations, and betas are estimated by regressing the change in the meeting-dated implied rate over a fixed window around each historical release on the standardized surprise, on a 2015-2026 sample with the March-June 2020 releases dropped.","infoType":"structured","topic":"fed-decision-in-september-762","sellerId":"0xEa705121eAe36b34548a34Ee87BB5C664404BCA8","pricing":{"perCallPrice":3.5},"deliveryFormat":"json","fullDeliveryDescription":"","contentHash":"c14c9171c2d3b4da962ee4e4b59fc2346e86168744e978ac41769bf9b4f1c0f9","transactionMode":"sealed_bid","topicSlugs":["fed-decision-in-september-762"],"preview":["One row per scheduled release between the as-of date and the September decision, in calendar order","Betas in basis points per natural unit of surprise, with fit statistic and sample size on the same row","Two coefficients per release: pre-blackout and in-blackout, because the same surprise prices differently once officials go quiet","Baseline implied rate ships alongside, so the beta composes directly into a conditional level rather than a delta with no anchor"],"publishedAt":"2026-07-21T01:51:19.928Z","delistedAt":null,"fields":{"schema_version":"1.0","columns":["release_name","release_date","surprise_unit","beta_bps_per_unit","beta_bps_in_blackout","r_squared","sample_n","consensus_level"],"row_count":9},"bidConfig":{"copies":10,"windowSeconds":30,"intervalSeconds":0,"perCallPrice":3.5,"copiesPerRound":1,"settlementRule":"top_n_pay_as_bid"},"stake":50,"signalType":"structured-data","signalSchema":{"release_name":"string","release_date":"string","surprise_unit":"string","beta_bps_per_unit":"number","beta_bps_in_blackout":"number","r_squared":"number","sample_n":"number","consensus_level":"number","target_meeting":"string","baseline_implied_rate_pct":"number","note":"string"},"signals":[{"id":"sig_3d5b99beda7341ca8160c357482ff71d","packId":"pack-1784598679928-ocjq","label":"September FOMC release calendar with surprise betas","summary":"Nine release rows carrying date, surprise unit, estimated basis-point sensitivity of the September-meeting implied rate, the in-blackout variant of that coefficient, fit statistic, sample size, and current consensus level.","observedAt":"2026-07-21T01:51:19.925Z","source":"Release dates from published agency schedules, consensus levels from public survey compilations, betas estimated from historical OIS quote series around each release.","payload":{}}],"sourceDeclaration":"Release dates from published agency schedules, consensus levels from public survey compilations, betas estimated from historical OIS quote series around each release.","delisted_at":null,"salesCount":0,"rating":null,"lastUpdatedAt":"2026-07-21T01:51:19.928Z","lifecycle":{"pack_id":"pack-1784598679928-ocjq","pack_availability":"live","bid_window_state":"open","payment_state":"not_paid","delivery_state":"not_available","dispute_state":"none","close_reason":null,"allowed_actions":["bid"]}}